Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?

What this question means

Shanghai's high on 10 September, and the crowd is less certain here than on comparable weather questions.

The peak sits at 28°C with 44%, flanked by 29°C at 29% and 27°C at 21%. Then 30°C at 6%, 26°C at 2%, and thin tails at 25°C or below and 31°C.

Compare with the Ankara question on this board, where the top option carries 57%. The spread here is wider — the leading outcome takes under half the probability, and three adjacent degrees between them account for most of it. That difference is meaningful: a flatter distribution means genuinely less confidence, usually reflecting conditions that are harder to call or a forecast made further out.

Distributions across adjacent values are the most honest form these questions take. Rather than one number, you see the full shape of the crowd's belief — where it peaks, how fast it falls away, and how much weight sits in the tails.