Highest temperature in Wellington on September 7?

What this question means

Wellington on 7 September, and the crowd is markedly less sure here than on the tropical questions elsewhere on this board.

The peak is 12°C at 39%, with 13°C at 27% and 11°C at 15%. Then 14°C at 7%, 10°C at 5%, 15°C at 3% — a distribution spread across six degrees rather than concentrated on one.

Two things drive the spread. Early September is the start of spring in the southern hemisphere, which is the most variable part of the year in temperate latitudes. And Wellington sits in a strait between two land masses with a reputation for wind, where conditions can change quickly.

The contrast with Singapore's 68% peak on the same date is the useful lesson. Neither crowd is better informed than the other. One is forecasting a stable system and the other a volatile one, and the confidence in each distribution honestly reflects that difference rather than the skill of the forecaster.