Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

What this question means

Rising quietly: 10% a week ago, 16% now, within a 9% to 17% range since tracking opened at 13%.

Several questions on this board ask whether a strategic waterway or airspace closes by a given date, and they behave very differently from one another. The Israel airspace question resolved almost entirely within a week. The Strait of Hormuz question has fallen steadily for a month. This one is drifting upward.

Comparing them is more useful than reading any alone, because the shape of the movement says what kind of situation each is. Sharp resolution means an event occurred. Steady decline means a risk faded. A slow climb, as here, suggests conditions gradually deteriorating without anything decisive happening.

Note the wording: "effectively closed" rather than formally so. Threshold language like that makes resolution a matter of degree, and the definition will carry weight.