Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

What this question means

Halved, and then halved again. Tracking opened at 48%, sat at 50% a month ago, fell to 28% a week ago, and now reads 18%.

The question asks whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by 31 December. A month ago it was close to a coin flip. It is now a clear underdog, having covered an 18% to 50% range with almost all the movement in one direction.

Sustained one-way drift is a different signal from volatility. A number that swings wildly is reacting to news; a number that grinds steadily downward usually reflects accumulating evidence — each week that passes without improvement making the deadline look less reachable than it did.

The word "normal" is doing heavy lifting here, and anyone forecasting this should think about it carefully. Returning to normal is a threshold rather than an event, and thresholds need definitions. Where exactly that line sits will matter as much as conditions do.