Iran leadership change by September 30?

What this question means

Three percent, with under a month to run. The crowd sees an Iranian leadership change by 30 September as close to off the table.

The number has been drifting down: 7% a month ago, 3% a week ago, 3% now, across a recorded range of 2% to 12% from a start of 6%. Nothing dramatic — just steady decay as the window narrows.

That decay is worth understanding, because it is mostly arithmetic rather than judgement. A question with a fixed deadline sheds probability automatically as time runs out. Twelve percent when there were five weeks left and 3% when there are three is not necessarily a change of view about whether the thing could happen; it is a change in how much time remains for it to happen in.

The lesson generalises across this board: on any dated question, always check how much of the current number is a view about the world and how much is simply the calendar closing in.