Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31

What this question means

At 18%, the crowd considers an Israeli withdrawal from beyond the Litani River by the end of December unlikely but far from impossible — and this one has been moving.

The forecast sat at 11% a week ago and 16% a month ago, ranging between 10% and 27% since tracking began at 21%. That is a wide band for a month, and the recent step up from 11% to 18% is a large move in relative terms: the implied odds have risen by more than half in a matter of days.

Volatility like this is characteristic of questions tied to active situations, where the number responds to events rather than drifting on a schedule. It also means the current figure is more perishable than the flatter questions on this board.

The specifics matter here more than usual — what counts as a withdrawal, and how completely it must happen to satisfy the question. Geographic conditions tend to have sharper edges than political ones, which cuts both ways for anyone trying to call it.