Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

What this question means

One percent. This is about as close to "no" as a forecast gets without being certain.

The question asks whether Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by 30 September. The crowd's answer has been consistently negative and growing more so: 2% a week ago, 4% a month ago, ranging between 1% and 5% across the tracked period from a starting point of 5%.

Numbers at this end of the scale deserve a note of caution. Very low probabilities are the noisiest part of any forecast, because the smallest possible move is a large fraction of the price — going from 1% to 2% doubles the implied odds while barely registering visually. They also tend to sit slightly above their true likelihood, since long shots attract more attention than the arithmetic justifies.

So read 1% as "the crowd sees no realistic path to this before the deadline", not as a precise measurement. The end of September leaves very little room for the picture to change.