PolyGroundWorld · 17 questions
World Events Prediction Markets
Geopolitics, treaties, conflicts and international summits. Track how forecasts shift as the news moves.
Open questions
- World3mo left
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
YES 10%NO 91% - World3mo left
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31
YES 18%NO 82% - World21d left
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
YES 1%NO 99% - World20d left
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
YES 97%NO 4% - World3mo left
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
YES 14%NO 86% - World3mo left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YES 18%NO 83% - World24d left
Iran leadership change by September 30?
YES 3%NO 97% - World3mo left
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
YES 4%NO 96% - World3mo left
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
YES 4%NO 96% - World3mo left
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
- World15h left
Bank of Russia decision in September?
- World3mo left
Iran leader end of 2026?
- World3mo left
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- World1d left
Israel military action against Lebanon on September 8?
YES 53%NO 48% - World24d left
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
YES 13%NO 88% - World1mo left
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
YES 16%NO 84%