Iran leader end of 2026?

What this question means

Mojtaba Khamenei at 85%, with "No Head of State" at 5%, Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf at 3%, and a long tail across a thirty-name field.

The inclusion of a no-head-of-state option is what makes this question well constructed. Succession questions in any system have to account for the possibility that the position is vacant, contested, or unresolved at the deadline — and without that option the named candidates would absorb probability that does not belong to them.

At 85% the crowd sees continuity as the strong expectation, which is consistent with the related questions on this board: an Iranian regime change before 2027 sits at 7%, and a leadership change by 30 September at 3%. Three questions approaching the same subject from different angles, all pointing the same way.

Long option lists with tiny values are normal on succession questions. Most names are there for completeness rather than as live possibilities.