Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

What this question means

This is what a market looks like at the moment it stops being a question. A week ago the crowd put the chance of Israel closing its airspace by 30 September at 11%. It now sits at 97%.

The full recorded range runs from 5% to 97%, starting at 13%. That is close to the entire scale in twenty-three days, and almost all of it in the final week. Moves of this shape are not reassessments — they are the forecast catching up to something that has already become apparent.

A 97% reading is worth understanding properly. It does not mean the outcome is certain; it means the crowd sees essentially no path to the alternative in the time remaining. The last few percentage points on a question like this usually price technicalities rather than genuine doubt — whether the condition is met precisely as the question defines it, and whether that is confirmed before the deadline.

Little suspense left here. The value is in the record of how fast it moved.