Iran full airspace closure by September 30?

What this question means

Thirteen percent, down from 19% a month ago after ranging between 6% and 28%.

Worth reading against the Israel airspace question on this board, which went from 11% to 97% within a week. Two questions of identical shape — will a country's airspace close by a given date — with completely opposite trajectories.

That contrast is the useful part. The same question structure can be nearly settled in one case and genuinely open in another, and nothing about the wording tells you which. Only the history does.

Here the pattern is gentle decay rather than resolution: a slow decline with a wide earlier range, which suggests an elevated-risk situation that has not materialised and is running out of calendar. With 24 days left, a meaningful share of the remaining 13% is simply time rather than a live expectation of the event.