Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

What this question means

Look at the history on this one: 4% a month ago, 4% a week ago, 4% today, with a recorded range of 4% to 4%. In a full month of tracking the number has not moved once.

That is rare, and it means something specific. A forecast this frozen is not a market that nobody is watching — it is a market where everyone watching agrees, and where nothing has happened to disturb the agreement. The crowd has settled on a small but non-zero chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026 and has seen no reason to revise it.

There is a useful contrast elsewhere on this board, where several questions have moved seventy points in the same period. Volatility reflects information arriving. Stillness reflects its absence.

A word of caution about small numbers: 4% is not the same as impossible, and low-probability outcomes are the ones people most often round down to zero in their heads. Four percent means roughly one in twenty-five.