Xi Jinping out before 2027?

What this question means

Four percent, and near-motionless: 5% a month ago, 5% a week ago, a recorded range of 4% to 5%.

Leadership-change questions in closed political systems have a characteristic forecasting profile. Very little information about succession reaches the outside world, so there is almost nothing for a forecast to react to week by week. The number reflects a base rate plus a small allowance for the unforeseeable, and it stays there.

That stillness should not be read as confidence. It is closer to the opposite — a stable number on an opaque question means the crowd has no new information, not that it has good information. Compare it with a question like the Israel-Iran ceasefire elsewhere on this board, which moves because events are visible.

The condition is broad: "out" covers any end to the role, whatever the cause. As with all such questions, the 4% is a sum across every path rather than an estimate of any single one.

Runs to the end of 2026.