Bank of Russia decision in September?

What this question means

Three options only: no change at 70%, a decrease at 28%, an increase at 3%.

The asymmetry is the story. Where the ECB question on this board prices a small chance of a rise and essentially none of a cut, this one is the mirror image — the live alternative here is easing, not tightening. Central banks are not all at the same point in their cycles, and a question like this reveals which direction the crowd believes the next move runs.

A short option list is itself informative. With only three outcomes on the board, the question is about direction rather than magnitude, which suits a decision where the size of any move is less contested than whether one happens at all.

At 70% for a hold with a 28% alternative, this is meaningfully less certain than the ECB's 86%. The crowd sees a real possibility of action here.

Resolves 11 September.