Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

What this question means

Flávio Bolsonaro at 78% to take second place in the first round, with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 20%, Renan Santos at 9% and the rest of a seventeen-name field near zero.

Read alongside the outright election question on this board, where those same two names sit at 46% and 52%. The two markets together describe something a single question could not: the crowd expects Lula to lead the first round and Flávio Bolsonaro to finish second, then gives the eventual contest a near coin flip.

Second-place questions exist because Brazil uses a two-round system. Finishing second is not a consolation — it is qualification for the runoff, which is where the presidency is actually decided. So this question is really asking who advances.

The 20% on Lula here is the mirror of his 52% there: the small chance he finishes second is the chance the first round does not go as expected.