US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

What this question means

This is the most dramatic repricing on the board. When tracking began the crowd put the chance at 86%. A month ago it was 66%. It now sits at 14%.

Across the recorded period the forecast has covered almost the entire scale — from 86% down to 14%, more than seventy points in roughly a month. A collapse of that size does not happen through gradual reassessment. It happens when an expectation that was widely held turns out to be wrong, and the crowd revises all at once.

The question asks whether the United States announces an end to the Iranian blockade by 30 September. Note that it turns on an announcement, not on conditions changing quietly — a more specific bar, with a firm deadline attached.

At 14% with that deadline approaching, the remaining probability is mostly time running out rather than the outcome becoming impossible. Questions like this tend to decay toward zero on their own as the date closes in.