Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

What this question means

At 86%, the crowd expects the Israel-Iran ceasefire to hold through 30 September — and confidence has grown as the deadline has approached. The forecast was 70% when tracking opened and 71% a month ago, ranging between 68% and 91%.

That upward drift is characteristic of continuation questions, and the reason is mostly structural. A question asking whether something *continues* gets easier to answer as time passes: every day that goes by is one less day in which the thing could break, so the probability rises on its own even if nothing about the underlying situation improves.

It is the mirror image of the deadline questions elsewhere on this board, which decay toward zero as their dates approach. Same arithmetic, opposite sign.

The remaining 14% is not really pricing a return to the previous state so much as any single disruptive event in the days left. Questions like this rarely erode — they either run out the clock or break suddenly.