Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

What this question means

At 27%, a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement before the end of 2026 is priced as a real possibility rather than a hopeful one — roughly one chance in four.

The path here has not been smooth. Tracking began at 36%, drifted down to 18% a week ago, and has since recovered to 27%, covering an 18% to 36% band along the way. That pattern — decline, then partial recovery — is common on questions tied to negotiations, where the forecast tends to track visible diplomatic activity rather than underlying positions.

Compare it with the shorter-dated version of the same question, which asks about an agreement by 31 October and sits at 12%. The gap between those two numbers is the useful signal: it is the crowd's estimate of how much can plausibly happen in the two extra months. A wide gap means the timeline is doing most of the work.

Note the bar is an agreement, not a pause in fighting or a framework toward one.