US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

What this question means

Four percent, with the deadline days away. This is a question in its final act.

It asks whether the United States announces an end to the Iranian blockade by 14 September. Tracking began at 20% and has fallen through a 3% to 24% range to reach 4%, where it sat at 5% a week ago. A longer-dated version of the same question, running to 30 September, sits at 14%.

Most of that decline is the calendar rather than the news. A question with a fixed deadline loses probability automatically as time runs out — not because the outcome becomes less possible in principle, but because there are fewer days left in which it could occur. By the last week, a low number is often just arithmetic.

The pair is instructive. Same event, deadlines two weeks apart, and the later one carries more than three times the odds. That difference is a clean measure of how much the crowd thinks two additional weeks are worth.