Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

What this question means

Twelve percent, for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by 31 October. The same question with a 31 December deadline sits at 27%.

That pairing is the most useful thing on offer here. Two questions, same event, different dates — the difference between them isolates how much the crowd thinks the extra two months are worth. Here those two months more than double the odds, which says the constraint is timeline rather than plausibility. Nobody is saying an agreement cannot happen; they are saying October is soon.

The near-dated version has been the more volatile of the two, ranging from 7% to 28% across the tracked period and starting at 15%. It sat at 8% a week ago and has since recovered to 12%.

Short-deadline questions have a characteristic behaviour worth knowing: they decay toward zero as the date approaches, simply because there is less time for anything to happen. Some of the decline here is that arithmetic rather than any change in the underlying picture.