Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

What this question means

United Russia at 76% is the headline here, and so is the 20% attached to New People.

The remaining parties barely register: the Liberal Democratic Party at 4%, the Communist Party at 2%, and A Just Russia, Rodina and Civic Platform all rounding to zero across the seven-party field. The question asks which party gains the most seats — not which forms a government, not which wins a majority, simply which ends up with the largest bloc.

What makes the numbers interesting is the gap between 76% and certainty. Where one party is heavily expected to lead, the remaining quarter of the probability is not really pricing an upset in the ordinary sense. It is pricing the ordinary distance between an expected result and a confirmed one — the stretch between votes being cast and there being something unambiguous to settle against.

Resolution comes at the end of September, close enough that the forecast should firm up quickly once actual results arrive.