Ebola pandemic in 2026?

What this question means

Nearly motionless at 3%: 4% a month ago, 4% a week ago, a recorded range of 2% to 4%.

The hantavirus question on this board sits at the same 3%, with an equally flat line. Two different diseases, two questions, one number — which tells you something about how these are being priced.

Neither figure reflects a specific expectation about either pathogen. Both represent a background rate: the crowd's estimate of how often a year produces an event of this kind at all, applied to whichever candidate a question happens to name. Absent concrete news, that base rate is the only available anchor.

The value in such questions is the flatness itself. A stable 3% is the crowd saying it sees nothing. If one of these ever moved meaningfully, that movement would be worth far more attention than the level ever was.