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Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?

  1. 100-101°F59%
  2. 98-99°F35%
  3. 96-97°F5%
  4. 102-103°F5%
  5. 90-91°F2%
  6. 94-95°F2%
  7. 104-105°F2%
  8. 106-107°F2%
  9. 89°F or below0%
  10. 92-93°F0%
  11. 108°F or higher0%
Status
Open
Resolves by
September 9, 2026
Contenders
11

What this question means

Dallas on 9 September: 100-101°F at 59%, 98-99°F at 35%, and thin weight everywhere else.

The pair with the 11 September question on the same city is the useful part. That one peaks at 96-97°F with only 33%. So across two days the crowd expects roughly four degrees of cooling — and prices the nearer date almost twice as confidently.

Both effects are textbook. Forecast skill degrades with distance, so the further question spreads across more brackets. And the direction of the change is itself a forecast: a specific, priced expectation that the heat breaks.

What makes the pairing informative rather than redundant is that neither number alone would tell you this. One distribution is a state. Two are a trend, plus a measure of how much confidence the crowd loses per day of horizon — which on this evidence is a great deal.

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