Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 7?

What this question means

The widest weather distribution on the board. Tokyo on 7 September peaks at just 30% for 27°C, with 28°C at 21%, 26°C at 16%, 25°C and 29°C at 12%, 24°C at 6%, 30°C at 4% and 23°C at 2%.

Eight values carry meaningful probability, spread across an eight-degree range. Compare with Tel Aviv on the same date, where two adjacent degrees take essentially everything.

A distribution this flat on a one-day forecast indicates genuinely unsettled conditions — the kind of situation where the outcome depends on whether a system arrives, how quickly, and how much cloud or rain accompanies it. Small differences in timing produce large differences in the recorded high.

This is the honest shape for a difficult forecast. A crowd facing real uncertainty and spreading probability accordingly is better calibrated than one forcing confidence it does not have. The flatness is the information.