Highest temperature in Wellington on September 10?

What this question means

Wellington on 10 September breaks a pattern worth noticing. The peak is 14°C at 53%, with 13°C at 40% — and that is *more* confident than the same city's 7 September question, which peaks at just 39%.

Normally a forecast further out is less certain, not more. The other paired questions on this board follow that rule reliably.

What this shows is that horizon is not the only thing driving confidence. A settled weather pattern three days away can be more predictable than an unsettled one tomorrow. Here the later date apparently falls in calmer conditions, and the distribution tightens accordingly even though it is further from the present.

It is a useful correction to an easy assumption. Forecast confidence reflects the difficulty of the specific thing being forecast, not merely the distance to it — and a crowd that prices the further date more sharply is telling you something about the weather, not making a mistake.