Highest temperature in Wellington on September 11?

What this question means

Three Wellington questions now sit on this board, and in sequence they show something unusual: the city is warming and the crowd is getting *more* confident as the dates move further out.

7 September peaks at 12°C with 39%. The 10th at 14°C with 53%. This one, the 11th, at 15°C with 64%.

Rising confidence at a longer horizon runs against the normal pattern, where forecast skill decays with distance. The explanation is that horizon is not the only variable — a settled pattern several days out can be far more predictable than an unsettled one tomorrow. These three prices say the week begins in changeable spring conditions and ends in something calmer.

That is a genuinely useful thing to be able to read off a set of markets: not just what the weather will be, but how confident the forecast itself deserves to be on each day.