How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 31 - September 6?

What this question means

A three-way tie at the top, which is rare. How many magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes occur worldwide in a single week is priced at more than 13 with 35%, exactly 12 with 32% and exactly 13 with 31% — three outcomes within four points of each other.

Below that the distribution falls off a cliff: 10 and 11 at 1%, everything at 8 or fewer at zero.

This is close to a pure base-rate question, and the shape shows it. Global seismic activity at this magnitude is remarkably steady over weekly windows — enough events occur that the total behaves like a well-understood statistical process rather than a set of individual surprises. The crowd knows roughly where the count lands and is genuinely unable to split the top three.

That is a healthy kind of uncertainty. Nobody is claiming special insight into which number comes up, and the flatness at the peak is an honest admission that the difference between 12 and 13 is noise.