Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

What this question means

No favourite at all. The leading candidate for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize sits at 8%.

Yulia Navalnaya leads on that number, with UNRWA at 7%, the International Court of Justice at 6%, Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 3%, and Donald Trump, Pope Leo XIV, Greta Thunberg and Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani each around 2%, across a twenty-name field.

This is what maximum uncertainty looks like. Where most questions on this board have a clear leader, here the probability is spread so thinly that no candidate is meaningfully favoured — and with twenty listed names, a large share of the total sits outside the visible top eight.

There is a good reason. The Nobel Committee deliberates privately, publishes nothing in advance, and has a long history of choosing candidates who were not on anyone's shortlist. There is essentially no information to forecast from, and the flatness of the distribution is the crowd honestly reporting that.

Announced 10 October.