Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

What this question means

Seven percent, and near-frozen: 8% a month ago, 7% a week ago, a recorded range of 7% to 8%.

The condition is broader than it first reads. "Out as President" covers resignation, removal, incapacity, death, and any other end to the office — so 7% is the sum across every route, not the odds of any specific scenario. That framing matters when judging whether the number looks right. Dismissing it requires ruling out all paths at once.

Leadership questions in systems with little public visibility into succession behave like this. There is almost nothing arriving week to week for a forecast to react to, so the number settles near a base rate and stays there. Stillness here reflects absent information, not confident information.

Questions of this shape tend not to drift. They sit flat and then move abruptly, if they move at all.

Runs to the end of 2026.