Which party will win the House in 2026?

What this question means

A two-option question, which is rare on this board: the Democratic Party at 88%, the Republican Party at 14%.

Read it against the balance-of-power question here, which splits the two chambers into four combinations. There, outcomes containing a Democratic House carry the large majority of the probability — consistent with this figure, arrived at from a different direction.

The value of having both is that they answer different things. A single-chamber question gives you a clean number. The combination question tells you how the chambers move relative to each other, and reveals that the Senate is considerably more contested than the House.

Anyone forecasting these should check their view satisfies both. A strong opinion about the House that contradicts the combination market means one of the two is mispriced — and identifying which is exactly the kind of edge these questions reward.

Resolves 3 November.