Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

What this question means

Gadi Eizenkot at 54% leads, with Benjamin Netanyahu at 28% the clear second across an eighteen-name field.

Behind them the drop is steep: Naftali Bennett at 7%, Avigdor Lieberman at 3%, then Itamar Ben Gvir and Yoaz Hendel at 1%, with Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz rounding to zero.

Parliamentary systems make this a harder forecasting problem than a direct election. The premiership is decided by coalition arithmetic after the votes are counted, not by who wins the most support outright — so a leader can perform well and still not form a government, while a smaller party's leader can end up in the role through negotiation. The crowd is pricing two stacked uncertainties: how people vote, and what the resulting parliament does.

That is usually why numbers in these questions stay less concentrated than the polling might suggest. A 54% favourite in a coalition system carries more genuine doubt than 54% in a head-to-head.