Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

What this question means

At 7%, and barely moving — 7% a month ago, 7% a week ago, a recorded range of 7% to 8% across the entire tracked period.

The difficulty with this question is not the estimate. It is the word "fall". Regime change is a category, not an event, and it can arrive as a sudden collapse, a negotiated transition, an internal replacement that leaves the structure intact, or a gradual erosion that nobody can date. Which of those count decides the outcome as much as anything happening on the ground.

This is why definitional questions tend to sit still. When the resolution criteria carry as much weight as real-world events, there is less for a forecast to react to — day-to-day news moves the situation without clearly moving the question.

Anyone forecasting this should read the resolution terms before the headlines. On a question like this the terms are doing at least half the work, and a 7% under one definition could be a 20% under another.